A stable, well-functioning financial market for allA stable, well-functioning financial market for allResult
2025
Stability in the Financial System (2025:1): Uncertainty could persist for a while
The uncertainty in geopolitical and economic developments is high, and the risk of negative shocks is higher now than it was last autumn. At the same time, Swedish banks have large capital buffers and good profitability, which builds resilience. Financial firms, households and firms all need to be prepared that the uncertainty could persist for a while. These are some of the conclusions from FI's first stability report of the year.
The Swedish Mortgage Market: Households need to have margins for an uncertain future
The conditions for household finances improved in 2024. As many as 8 out of 10 households chose a variable interest rate, which is a higher share than in previous years. But the economic development is uncertain. Households need to allow for continued high housing and living costs. These are some of the conclusions from this year’s report on the Swedish mortgage market.
FI Analysis No. 48: Share of consumer credit debt registered with Swedish Enforcement Authority increases during economic downturns
In 2020, almost 130,000 individuals had a debt registered with the Swedish Enforcement Authority that was related to consumer credit. Since the end of 2020, the general price level has increased (inflation) by almost 20 per cent. The Riksbank raised the policy rate during the same period, making it significantly more expensive to borrow money. In 2023, just over 160,000 individuals with consumer credit had new debts registered with the Swedish Enforcement Authority, which represents an increase of 23 per cent since 2020. The new debts, measured in SEK, that were related to consumer credit were 51 per cent higher than they were in 2020.
2024
FI Analysis No. 47: The 2023 Banking Turmoil – Could What Happened in the US and Switzerland Also Happen in Sweden?
During the spring of 2023, one Swiss bank and several US banks failed. Multiple actors in both the US and internationally have analysed the underlying causes. We summarise the findings of these reports as follows: there was a lack of internal governance and control, there were deficiencies in the supervision, and several of the banks were not fully subject to the Basel regulations.
Stability in the Financial System (2024:2): Improved outlook, but risk of set-backs
The outlook for financial stability has improved somewhat in the past six months. Sweden continues to experience a mild economic downturn, but interest rate cuts are contributing to improved optimism about the future. At the same time, the uncertain global economic and geopolitical situation is leading to heightened risks, in part in the form of cyber attacks. These are the conclusions of FI’s second stability report for the year.
Two expert reports on macroprudential policy measures
Amortisation requirements, the LTI ratio, and the LTV cap are macroprudential policy tools that are used in Sweden and many other countries. But what are the potential effects of these borrower-based measures? To answer to this question, Finansinspektionen commissioned two expert reports on the topic.
Interest rate puts pressure on indebted households
Households continue to be under pressure from both higher interest rates and other costs. This is evident in FI’s mortgage report. The report looks at new mortgagors during the autumn of 2023. We can see that there are fewer mortgagors than in previous years. Home buyers also bought slightly less expensive homes and borrowed slightly less. Total lending to households has stagnated, but despite this household indebtedness continues to be high.
FI Analysis 45: High risks in small and mid-sized commercial real estate firms
Many smaller, unlisted commercial real estate (CRE) firms have a high loan-to-value (LTV) ratio and a low interest coverage ratio (ICR). This makes them vulnerable to a scenario with high interest rates and lower earnings. A new FI Analysis concludes that, given such a scenario, smaller CRE firms would constitute the majority of banks’ real estate sector-related credit risks.
Stability in the Financial System (2024:1): A slightly better outlook in an uncertain environment
The outlook for financial stability has improved somewhat, and uncertainty has decreased, but we are still in the middle of a recession. Higher costs for both interest payments and other goods and services are putting pressure on households and firms. The worsened global security situation is also imposing increased demands on the operational resilience in the financial sectorn. These are the conclusions of this year's first stability report.
FI would like the financial market to shift its sustainability work into the next gear
There is a lot of work left to do before the financial market fully contributes to a sustainable economy. For example, firms need to be better at identifying and integrating sustainability risks. One condition for this is that they have the right competence in sustainability-related matters. Firms also are responsible for preventing their operations from being used for criminal purposes. These are several of the conclusions we draw in our sustainability report that is being published today.
